Equity benchmarks ended marginally lower Thursday as investors exercised caution ahead of the impending announcement of the India-US tariff outcome, with the Sensex settling 375.24 points or 0.45 per cent lower at 82,259.24 and the Nifty 50 falling 100.60 points or 0.4 per cent to 25,111.45.
The market’s decline was primarily driven by weakness in heavyweight IT and banking stocks, with investors resorting to selling amid uncertainty over trade negotiations between the two countries. “Markets largely remained in the negative zone amid uncertainty over the impending announcement of the India-US tariff outcome, as investors resorted to selling in banking, IT and oil & gas shares that led the downfall in key benchmarks,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities Ltd.
Among the top gainers on the Nifty 50, Tata Consumer Products led with a 2.01 per cent gain, followed by Tata Steel which rose 1.68 per cent. Hindalco advanced 0.79 per cent, while Mahindra & Mahindra gained 0.61 per cent and Trent climbed 0.59 per cent. On the losing side, Tech Mahindra was the worst performer, falling 2.72 per cent, followed by IndusInd Bank which dropped 1.90 per cent. Infosys declined 1.67 per cent, Wipro fell 1.54 per cent, and SBI Life Insurance shed 1.46 per cent.
The session reflected rapid shifts in sentiment, with initial optimism at the open giving way to volatility. “Nifty kicked off the session at 25,230, briefly touching a high of 25,238 before volatility took hold, dragging the index down to an intraday low of 25,135,” noted Ashika Institutional Equities in their market commentary.
Sectoral performance remained mixed, with the Nifty Realty index emerging as the top gainer, rallying 1.23 per cent, while metals, consumer durables, and pharma segments managed to outperform amid broader market noise. However, the IT index lost the most, shedding 1.50 per cent, while banking and financial services remained under pressure. The Nifty Bank index declined 0.59 per cent to 56,828.80, and the Nifty Financial Services index fell 0.40 per cent to 26,809.45.
“Indian equity benchmarks ended marginally lower as investors exercised caution amid subdued Q1 earnings announcements, particularly in the technology and banking sectors,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited. “Market participants remained sidelined due to elevated valuations of large-cap stocks and FII outflows owing to the uncertainty regarding US-India trade deal.”
The broader market showed relative resilience, with the Nifty Midcap 100 declining only 0.17 per cent to 59,519.10, while the Nifty Next 50 fell 0.23 per cent to 68,711.45. On the BSE, 4,199 stocks were traded, with 2,007 advancing and 2,040 declining. A total of 149 stocks hit their 52-week highs, while 40 touched their 52-week lows.
Global factors also weighed on sentiment, with investor confidence remaining tentative due to speculation around a possible change in Federal Reserve leadership. “On the global stage, investor confidence stayed tentative, shaped by speculation around a possible change in Federal Reserve leadership—a rumor denied by President Trump but nonetheless casting a shadow over sentiment,” the Ashika Institutional Equities commentary noted.
Currency markets reflected the cautious sentiment, with the rupee trading weak by 0.12 per cent at 86.02 against the dollar. “Rupee traded weak by 0.12 per cent at 86.02 as the dollar index found support near the 98.70 mark. Weakness in domestic capital markets also weighed on the rupee,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities. “Going ahead, the rupee is expected to trade in a range of 85.75 to 86.25.”
Commodity markets also faced pressure, with gold trading weak below $3,330 on Comex as the dollar index strengthened above 98.75. “Gold traded weak below $3330 on Comex as the dollar index strengthened above 98.75, following higher-than-expected U.S. CPI data, which dampened hopes of an immediate Fed rate cut,” Trivedi added. “In MCX, gold slipped by ₹500 to trade near ₹97,280.”
Technical analysts remained cautious about the near-term outlook. “Today, the benchmark indices witnessed profit booking at higher levels,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities. “We are of the view that, as long as the market is trading below 25,200/82,500, the weak sentiment is likely to continue. On the downside, the 50-day SMA at 25,000/82,000 would be the immediate support level.”
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, echoed similar concerns. “Nifty remained mostly under selling pressure throughout the day as the index failed to move beyond the crucial resistance level of 25,260, leading to long unwinding. The current sentiment appears bearish and may drag Nifty towards the 24,920–24,900 zone in the short term.”
Despite the current weakness, analysts noted that strong domestic liquidity and selective buying in realty and consumption theme stocks helped limit the downside. “Despite the muted trend, strong domestic liquidity and selective buying in realty and consumption theme stocks helped to limit the downside, keeping the broader market in a range-bound phase,” Nair observed.
Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor the outcome of the US-India trade negotiations, which could significantly impact sentiment. “Once the deal is announced and if it suits the interests of both the countries, there will be a relief in the markets and we may see short-term spurt, else the sluggish to pessimist mood could continue,” Tapse noted. The ongoing earnings season will also have a bearing on markets, with investors taking positions based on how results pan out in the coming days.
Published on July 17, 2025
